Forex news for North American trading on August 4, 2020:
- Schumer: Negotiations are moving in the right direction
- Mnuchin told lawmakers a stimulus deal is no closer than a week ago - report
- Videos show enormous explosions in Beirut
- New Zealand GDT price index -5.1%
- US June factory orders +6.2% vs +5.0% expected
- ISM New York business conditions 53.5 vs 39.5 prior
- Canada July Markit manufacturing PMI 52.9 vs 47.8 prior
Markets:
- Gold up $40 to record $2017
- US 10-year yields down 4.7 bps to 0.506%
- WTI crude up 55-cents to $41.56
- S&P 500 up 12 points to 3306
- AUD leads, GBP lags
What a day for the gold bulls. It's been a long time coming for the trip to $2000 but it's been a spectacular run in the past month. Early in North American trading, it was actually lower, down to $1966 but an impressive bid arrived again -- just like it has for the past week -- and then it just took off.
Commodities more broadly were also bid, which could be a signal that the market thinks Congress is going to spend more.
On the flip-side, bonds also hit a record with 5-year yields down to 0.1886% and 10s at a closing record of 0.458%.
In FX, the early story was USD strength but it reversed abruptly about an hour into New York trade, leaving a series of V-shaped moves on the intraday charts.
The real intrigue is around Congressional stimulus and there's nothing solid to report. The headlines vary from disappointing to optimistic but my line of thinking is that Pelosi is going for more and is increasingly likely to get it. The market would love to see $600 benefits extended until February.
