This via SG on sterling, in summary:
There are too many sterling bulls for comfort
Vulnerable long positions. Our positioning analytics are currently raising several red flags on GBP
- when CFTC positioning was comparatively long in April 2018, GBP/USD subsequently sold-off;
- GBP/USD trades in overbought territory according to the 1y percentile of long positions at 92%;
- and dry-powder analysis shows that long traders are excessively concentrated.
we remain bullish GBP on a longer-term view but nervous for the months ahead. GBP/USD … looks vulnerable to another move towards 1.28
Oh, a ps on this - Société Générale forecast a rate cut from the boee Bank of England this week: