Economic data has been taking a back seat to Brexit headlines for GBP impact, but its a good idea to keep an eye on developments nonetheless
Wednesday 10 October 2018 brings plenty of data, among which is August GDP
due at 0830GMT
- August GDP median consensus is +0.6% 3mth/3mth
- July was 0.6%
RBC preview:
- The UK economy enjoyed a particularly strong July …
- Lead indicators suggest that growth remained positive into August; the composite PMI remained comfortably in positive territory, retail sales slowed but still posted an expansion.
- With the three month growth rate still capturing some of the weakness from the spring in the denominator even a mild expansion in August will be enough to maintain GDP growth at 0.6% 3m/3m.
Citi preview:
- After a strong July, in particular in the services sector, we expect some correction in August. If this does not materialise, there would be a material upside risk to our GDP growth forecast of 0.4% QQ for 3Q (BoE forecast 0.5% QQ).
- We will also pay attention to the narrowing trade deficit, which is largely the result of a surge in exports and contradicts evidence of slowing demand in many important export markets.
