GDP tracking estimates rise after today's US data

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley see upside

Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley see upside
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is up to 8.6% from 8.2% for the fourth quarter. It's the first update in a week.

After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors, the US Census Bureau, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 10.3 percent to 12.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.45 percentage points to 0.44 percentage points. These gains were partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 9.2 percent to 7.9 percent.
Separately, Morgan Stanley also boosted its tracker to 8.7%.

"Incorporating the wealth of data today, including GDP revisions to 3Q21, more robust spending, strong inventories, strong durable goods orders, and upside in new home sales, we significantly raise our Q4 GDP tracking from 3.0% to 8.7%"
New home sales? That's a bit of a puzzling one seeing as it was softer than estimates with a downgrade to September numbers. In any case, the point stands and all signs point to healthy consumption.
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