Just a heads-up for the Japanese Q3 GDP data due at 2350GMT.

I did a quick preview back on Friday, here: Preview of the Japanese preliminary Q3 GDP data due on Monday

Another look at what is expected:

  • GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q3, preliminary, q/q: expected 0.5%, prior -1.8%
  • GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q3 preliminary y/y: expected 2.2%, prior -7.1%
  • GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) for Q3, preliminary q/q: expected 0.4%, prior -0.2%
  • GDP Deflator y/y for Q3, preliminary: expected 1.9%, prior 2.0%
  • GDP Private Consumption q/q for Q3, expected is 0.8, prior was -5.1%
  • GDP Business Spending y/y for Q3, expected 0.9%, prior was -5.1%

The data release is in sharp focus as Japanese PM Abe will be looking at it to decide on the timing of the next sales tax hike. Or, so the story goes …. if you’ve been following along in the past week or so you’ll know that it seems to be a done deal that the hike will be delayed and that Japan will go to the polls in December for a snap election … I had this on the weekend, for example: Nikkei reports that on Tuesday Japan PM will decide on tax hike delay and then December 14 “likely to be election day in Japan”