Preliminary IMF analysis
- IMF says estimates still need further analysis
- Most countries should benefit from increased US demand for goods and services
- With low dollar-funding costs, there is risk of sudden tightening in financial conditions that could spill over to emerging markets
- Fed and other central banks need to carefully manage policies and communications to avoid unwarranted tightening
These things are impossible to forecast but it's a good baseline and highlights the upside from another $2.5 trillion on infrastructure.