Preliminary IMF analysis

  • IMF says estimates still need further analysis
  • Most countries should benefit from increased US demand for goods and services
  • With low dollar-funding costs, there is risk of sudden tightening in financial conditions that could spill over to emerging markets
  • Fed and other central banks need to carefully manage policies and communications to avoid unwarranted tightening

These things are impossible to forecast but it's a good baseline and highlights the upside from another $2.5 trillion on infrastructure.