IMF out with global growth view

  • IMF sees real 2020 GDP shrinking -4.4% vs. -5.2% estimate in June
  • IMF forecast 20211 global growth at 5.2% vs. 5.4% in June
  • raises 2020 China growth estimate to 1.9% vs. 1.0% in June, sees 8.2% for 2021 (unchanged)
  • forecast Eurozone 2020 contraction at -8.3% vs. -10.2% in June
  • sees Eurozone 2021 growth at 5.2% vs. 6.0% in June
  • world trade to rebound by 8.3% 2021 vs. 8% rise in June estimate
  • 2020 contraction in emerging markets excluding China worsens 2-5.7% from 5% in June forecasts
  • worst outlook for emerging markets X China reflects continued spread of virus, greater dependence on tourism, remittances, commodities, external finance
  • industrial output rebounding in US, China, Europe and Brazil but services, consumer spending lagging. Sees Q4 momentum slowing
  • countries should continue to support titled workers and firms to avoid scarring that will reduce future growth potential
  • reopening has stalled as pandemic continues to spread
  • sees 2021 world GDP growth 5.2% vs. 5.4% estimate in June
  • Improved forecast are due to less a dire contraction in 2nd quarter, and stronger than forecast Q3 rebound as advanced economies and China reopened
  • projections reflect revisions to pass the data and forecasts