Japan Q2 GDP due today – preview #2

I posted up a real quick preview here yesterday:

• Japan Q2 GDP data is due Friday - preview
  

Just a few more thoughts ahead of the data (due at 2350GMT) specifically on yesterday's capex indicator, machinery order for June (the final month of Q2, and thus relevant for the data today)

The data were a shocker (grammar gals and dudes, did I say that right?):

• Japan Core Machinery Orders for June: -8.8% m/m (expected -1.0%)
  

While June was poor indeed, the overall Q2 result was still +2.2 q/q (ie Q2 higher than Q1 by 2.2%). Let me just pop my 'economist' hat on for a moment and add that while the q/q result was up, it did fall well short of the +7% q/q that was forecast (ie 'on the other hand ...'). Still, the implication for today's data is despite a softer result for core private machinery orders Q2 GDP is still expected to show growth, which will be seventh consecutive quarter for Japan.

While not directly relevant to today, the 'outlooks' published yesterday point to a slow Q3 .... but we'll deal with that later :-D

For the yen, the data today should point to no imminent 'exit' considerations from the BOJ (and indeed, as Justin pointed out yesterday: BOJ watchers now see less chance of future policy changes in 2019)

While the BOJ is lower for longer, expect this as a continued yen negative.