According to the firm's head of currencies, commodities, and EM research, Luis Oganes

  • Not surprised if gold surpasses the $1,700/oz target set for next year
  • Bullishness is related to the fact that US' expansionary phase is in the late cycle
  • Gold has historically rallied even after business cycle starts to turn
  • And also rallied even if the US economy starts to fall into recession
  • Dollar strength is temporary
  • At some point, we'll see a catch-up recovery in Europe and Japan
  • The dollar will start moderating and a weakening dollar will support metal prices

Seems like a common theme these days that most are expecting the dollar to weaken as we move into 2H 2018. Well, if it happens, it happens. And until economic data suggests that there is improvement in Europe and Japan, it's near impossible to see the market getting too ahead of itself and forecasting that such a rebound will materialise for sure.


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