JP Morgan recession tracking model says the likelihood of a US recsion within 3 years is 80 percent
- probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28%
- 60% over the next two years,
Indicators used by JPM in the model include
- consumer and business sentiment
- prime-age male labor participation
- compensation growth
- durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product
Comes via Bloomberg.
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Protip - don't let your or others' political biases influence your take on economic indicators, outlooks etc. Its a common internet thing and a huge waste of your time.