Locked and loaded for non-farm payrolls: Wage growth would give the Fed a headache

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Non-farm payrolls coming up

This isn't a particularly important jobs report on the economics side but with markets so fragile, it could have an outsized impact.

The nightmare scenario for risk assets would be unexpectedly high wage growth. The consensus is hourly average earnings +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y with hours at 34.5. It would take a 0.2 pp reading on the high side to get markets really worried but even a 0.1 pp beat could trigger some worries.

The bigger market mover may be the Canadian jobs report. There haven't been widespread reports of layoffs after the drop in oil prices but a weak report would get some attention.

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