A snippet from National Australia Bank on their minor revisions to Australian and New Zealand dollar forecasts

In brief:

  • Support for AUD from Sino-US trade developments could prove ephemeral
  • in any event is offset by expected USD resilience, a somewhat weaker domestic economic backdrop (so RBA lower for longer) and market concerns related to the election

(note, Australian election due by May)

  • NZD to show relative strength (lower AUD/NZD) on relative economic and terms of trade performance, plus economic uncertainty linked to the Oz election

Forecasts:

  • AUD/USD seen 0.70-75 for the most part through 2019
  • NZD 0.67-0.70