New York state coronavirus numbers:
- 9298 cases today, highest yet
- 332 died yesterday to total 1550
- 18,000 tested yesterday (hit rate above 50%)
The death toll has tripled in four days but the +50% hit rate is most troubling. Italy's Lombardi region never hit 50%. Just over 1% of the state's population has been tested. Obviously that's not a random sample but it's an ugly scene.
Governor Cuomo started saying the apex would be in 14-21 days on March 21. However he keeps pushing it forward. Today he said it would 14-30 days from now.
As for the total numbers, my rule of thumb is to assume a 1% mortality and average time from exposure to death at 25 days. That means there were 155,000 cases in New York on March 6 (there were 44 confirmed cases at the time). Assume a doubling every 4 days until social distancing was implemented then slow it from there. Schools were closed March 12.
