The weekly tracking estimate from the New York Fed

  • Last week it was lowered to 2.1% from 2.2% because of soft trade data
  • For Q4, it was cut to 1.8% from 2.6%

Ouch. If those numbers hold up, growth this year would be around 1.8%.

"The decrease was driven by a large negative surprise from industrial production, and to a lesser extent by a negative surprise from retail sales," the New York Fed said.

Barclays also lowered its Q3 GDP forecast to 2.0% from 2.8% today, noting that Harvey hit harder in August than expected.