Coming up from NZ at 2245GMT, retail sales excluding inflation for Q1 2019

  • expected 0.6%, prior 1.7%

Via ASB:

  • best times for the retail sector look to be behind it
  • and we expect a sluggish 0.2% increase in quarterly retail volumes
  • annual retail volume growth at around 3%
  • Given the strong Q4 lift in retail volumes, some pullback is to be expected in Q1

Further out:

  • The outlook for retail spending over 2019 looks finely balanced given the various headwinds (less supportive housing backdrop, slowing employment and population growth, low wage growth) and tailwinds (Government Families package) facing the retail sector.

Westpac, on the other hand, are a little more upbeat:

  • expecting a 0.8% rise in retail volumes in the March quarter
  • underpinned by a solid 1.2% rise in core (ex-fuel) categories.
  • would be consistent with the monthly gauges of spending which have held at firm levels despite increases in petrol prices.

For the NZD, a beat on this would be a bit of a positive for the currency while a miss would see the slip lower add a a few more tics.