Economic growth data is due from Canada today, Thursday 30 August 2018 at 1230GMT
For June:
- expected +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y
- priors +0.5% and +2.6% respectively
But, of more interest is the Q2 release:
- expected +3.1% (annualised)
- prior +1.3%
RBC:
- This is one of the most anticipated quarterly GDP prints in some time, serving as an important component into the BoC's rate decision on September 5th (non-MPR).
- We are forecasting a 3.0% annualized GDP gain in Q2, with a 2.0pp add from net exports - after three consecutive detractions - a main driver. Household consumption growth should also improve in Q2 to a trend-like 2.0% annualized (adding 1.1pp), while residual government support (0.6pp) and non-residential investment (0.3pp) are also expected to contribute. Residential investment should detract 0.2pp after a 0.6pp detraction in Q1, while a smaller inventory add should shave 0.9pp off the headline number.
- The BoC hiked almost a year ago after a strong Q2 GDP report (4.5% vs 3.0% in their July 2017 MPR) and a similar upside surprise may be needed to move pricing for September meeting towards 50% (currently ~20%). The BoC had 2.8% for 2018-Q2 in their July 11th MPR.
- A mixed slate of activity reports in June leaves us with a 0.1% m/m prediction for the monthly GDP print
(bolding mine)
