New Zealand Q4 2018 CPI is due at 2145GMT on Tuesday 22 January 2019
- expected 0.0% change q/q, prior 0.9%
- expected 1.8% y/y, prior 1.9%
Preview via Westpac:
- The recent volatility in fuel prices will end up having little bearing on the December quarter figures, with the average price over the quarter close to unchanged.
- While we expect headline inflation to come in a little below the Reserve Bank's November MPS forecast, that's entirely due to the subsequent drop in fuel prices. In contrast, we think underlying inflation will be stronger than the RBNZ's forecast, reflecting the tightening labour market and the lower New Zealand dollar
Via ASB:
Weak Q4 CPI number partly reflect the impact of falling fuel prices (unwinding the previous quarter's 5.6% increase) and a seasonal fall in food price.
- underlying inflation trends have remained subdued
I noted in a Saturday post that the RBNZ's own inflation data released the same day is also potential kiwi mover
More from ASB on this
a key focus for the RBNZ will be core inflation trends
- Financial market participants are likely to await the release of the RBNZ's key measure of core inflation, the sectorial factor model, at 3pm on Wednesday.
(Note that is 0200GMT on Wednesday 23 January 2019 )
- We expect core inflation pressures have likely remained steady, with an annual print for the sectoral factor model at around 1.7%.
