Both Brent and WTI fell back overnight on the Japanese growth news but they’ve been held up by growing chatter of productions cuts by OPEC producers. Officials from producing countries are going to be scurrying about meeting each other ahead of the main OPEC meeting at the end of the month, in an effort to stabilise prices.
They’ve got a big battle on their hands with the Saudis who want to try and protect their market share. Here’s a couple of graphs that justify their fears of losing out to the US.
OPEC share of production since 2000
The WSJ has a handy quick file on select OPEC producers and what their breakeven levels are for next year.
OPEC breakeven levels 2015
With Brent trading at 78.48 we can see that there’s plenty of countries already in, and heading for, a lot of pain.
Brent is pivoting around the 78.50 level and Friday’s run held below the 80 big figure, and that’s likely to become important resistance.
Brent crude oil h1 chart 17 11 2014
IT’s still looking like rally selling mode, particularly on any bad growth news, but the noise in increasing from OPEC producers and that is likely to temper further big falls as we head towards the big meeting on the 27th.