Oil may be the cleanest way to trade covid fears but beware OPEC

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

OPEC+ meeting is on Thursday

OPEC+ meeting is on Thursday
Joe Biden may get the lower gas prices he wanted after all, but not for the reason he hoped for. 

There's been a sudden shift in market sentiment today on worries about the new covid variant in South Africa. I wrote about 5 things people are worried about and it's not a great picture. At the same time, it's very, very early.

Some trades around covid worries have proven to be though but a fairly consistent one is that covid fears curb gasoline demand. Oil is down $1.79 to $76.51 now, wiping out the post-SPR 'buy the fact' rally.

Oil has been stumbling lately and this won't help. The caveat is that OPEC+ might be looking for a reason not to pump the planned additional 400k bpd and now they might have it.

On the FX side, CAD is tracking closely to WTI and with Canada's openness to lockdowns, that's another interesting way to look at the trade.

Again, I think it's too early for anyone to make any kind of conclusions about this variant but by the time it's clear the market will already ahve moved.


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