Expects worry about incorrect negatives

Here's a worrisome report from the WSJ:

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result. They caution that only limited data is available, and their estimates are based on their own experience in the absence of hard science.

That picture is troubling, many doctors say, as it casts doubt on the reliability of a wave of new tests developed by manufacturers, lab companies and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most of these are operating with minimal regulatory oversight and little time to do robust studies amid a desperate call for wider testing.

I guess the flipside of that may be that more people have the virus and that it's killing fewer people.

I think there are two optimistic scenarios right now:

  1. That some therapy is very successful, cutting mortality by +70%
  2. That far more people have had the virus and herd immunity is much closer than believed