Citi notes inconsistency in December nonfarm payrolls
The technical team at CitiFX took a look at the pattern in the US jobs report in December over the past 17 years.
"Over a variety of periods going back to 1998 the December number has been volatile and inconsistent with the trend," they write.
They looked at the first reading rather than the final numbers because the report is revised many times.
Last year was an exception but in 2013 the first reading was +75K and that's the worst reading anytime dating back to mid-2012.
A few more points:
- In the past 17 years, the first print was only above 200K three times
- It's been below 100K seven times in that period
- Excluding the four negative prints, the average is 169K
The Fed has been trying to caution about slower jobs growth going forward because the economy is close to full employment so maybe there is a trade here. On the other hand, ADP was strong and I believe that secular trends in online shopping and temporary December hiring are a major upside skew so there's an equally good case for playing it safe.
Besides, I've never seen any model that has offered any kind of edge for guessing the first non-farm payrolls reading.
If you want a free guess, the best spot is the first ForexLive non-farm payrolls competition of 2016.
