US employment statistics for November 2019

The November US employment statistics will be released at 8:30 AM/1330 GMT tomorrow December 6, 2019.

The expectations are for:

  • Change nonfarm payroll 184K vs 128K last month
  • Change in private payroll (excludes governtment) 179K vs 131K last month
  • Change manufacturing payroll +40K vs -36K last month
  • Unemployment rate 3.6% versus 3.6% last month
  • Average hourly earnings MoM 0.3% versus 0.2% last month
  • Average hourly earnings YoY 3.0% versus 3.0% last month
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 hours versus 34.4 hours last week
  • Labor force participation rate, no estimate. Last month 63.3%
  • Underemployment rate, no estimate. Last month 7.0%

Some fun facts about the report:

  • The last time the Non Farm Payroll was negative was in September 2010 when -64K jobs were lost. That is a 110 consecutive months
  • Since that time, 21.7M Non farm payroll jobs have been added
  • The average monthly gain over the 110 months is 197.27
  • The high for that 110 months was 355K. The low was 15K.
  • The current 3 month average is 145.3K.
  • The highest 3 month average was 290.67K.

The chart below shows the nonfarm payroll gains since the last negative report 110 months ago along with the three-month running average.

US employment statistics for November 2019_
  • Since Pres. Trump took office in January 2017, 6.63 million jobs have been created. Over the 35 months that comes out to an average of 189.42K per month. The estimate for this month is 184K.

The ADP job change for November came in at 67K

  • The ADP cumulative jobs created over the 110 months since the last NFP negative reading comes to 21.3224 million. That is 377.6K less than the NFP total job change.
  • The 110 month average is 193.84K vs NFP of 197.27K. I am surprised by that but they may smooth the data in hindsight.
  • The largest job change was 298.6K.
  • The smallest job change was 45.7K
  • The current 3 month average is 104.2K

The chart below shows the ADP comparable data over the 110 month since the last negative nonfarm payroll reading 110 months ago. The orange line is the three-month moving average over that time.

ADP employment statistics and 3 month average

The ISM manufacturing employment component came in at 46.6 this month, down from 47.7 in October. The low for the year was 46.3 in September. The high over the last year was at 56 in December 2018.

For the non-manufacturing ISM employment component, it came in this month at 55.5 up from 53.7 last month. The low for the year was at 50.4 in September. The high for the year was at 58.1 in May 2019.

Like always, flip a coin on whether the number will be stronger or weaker than expectations.