This is from prior to the latest polling data, quite prescient from TD on GBP.
(bolding is mine)
- "After this week's general election, the next hurdle for UK markets is next week's Bank of England decision"
- "Macro risks are still high in both directions, but downside risks are rising relative to upside potential."
- "On the upside, if the election produces the stable Conservative majority that's expected, then we'll get some clarity around Brexit, potentially unleashing some pent-up demand in 2020 as uncertainty recedes. Fiscal policy will also support growth."
- "On the downside though, leading indicators are still pointing to a deterioration in the labour market, and optimism from political uncertainty may lead to tighter financial conditions than the growth outlook warrants."
- "UK data has surprised to the downside consistently since the last BoE meeting … GDP data revealed 3 straight months of negative/zero m/m growth for the first time since 2009. But we still expect the MPC to patiently await the post-Brexit data before shifting its stance, and stick to last month's two-sided guidance."
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ICYMI, the latest ong the election and GBP:
- UK election - Here is why GBP traders are freaking out about a possible hung parliament
- GBP has dropped on the latest UK election poll showing Conservative majority shrinking
- YouGov poll says UK election expected 28 seat majority for Johnson
- UK election - How the press is reporting the falling expected Boris majority
GBp update:
