Is the economy super-strong or is it a mirage?
The Bank of Canada's job is to set interest rates but that's not really the scope of it. In order to set rates, they need to understand the economy; where it is, where it's going, how strong it is etc.
Oftentimes, economic data -- especially the headline economic data -- doesn't tell the whole picture. Numbers can be skewed and Statistics Canada doesn't have the best reputation.
Meanwhile, the BOC has said it's especially data dependent at the moment. So the debate about Friday's sizzling jobs data continues. Economists are digging deeper into the numbers and some are finding more reason to be optimistic, while others are raising an eyebrow.
The Globe & Mail takes a closer look today. Benjamin Tal of CIBC World Markets said the numbers are even more impressive than they first appear.
"Even more important has been the improvement in the composition of job creation," Tal said in a note released today."Regardless of how you measure it, by industry or by occupation, the number of high-paying jobs rose faster last year than the number of low-paying jobs...So with wage inflation and job composition pointing in the same direction, real labour income is now rising at its fastest rate in five years."
David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff continues to double down on his skepticism, poking holes in the regional numbers and noting that Quebec's financial sector added more jobs in a month than the previous 10 years combined.
"Markets now feel three BoC moves for the entire year are a fait accompli?" he wrote. "I smell an opportunity here to go long the front end of the Canada curve and resist this recent up-leg in the loonie."
At the moment, the market also has some jitters, with USD/CAD touching 1.2488 after the soft Canadian building permits numbers.
