Commentary, not data will be key
I'm surprised the market didn't react more negatively to Chinese trade data earlier today. The numbers were terrible and suggest a sharp slowdown in Q4.
The good news is that the calendar is quiet until the start of next week. On Monday, January 21 there are reports due on December retail sales, industrial production, employment and GDP. That will be a critical day for China and argues for some de-risking on Friday.
In the nearer term, look for signs of weakness and concern in corporate earnings. Airlines reporting Tuesday could have some insight. Alcoa is out on Wednesday and CSX could offer a broader picture on the impact of the trade war. Thursday includes American Express and Netflix but note that Netflix doesn't operate in China.
One to watch very closely is TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer in Taiwan which will report on Thursday. It will be an early verdict on whether the consumer slowdown is real. Intel reporting on Thursday, Jan 24 will be similarly important.
