The polarization in the United States is staggering
No matter what happens in the election in 11 days, a big story from the vote is certain to be turnout.
The long lines in the first days of early voting were a giveaway about what's coming. The country has now passed 51 million votes cast, compared to about 130m total in the last election. In Florida, more people have already case early votes than the amount who voted for Trump last time.
The numbers are a definitive account of the perceived stakes in the US election and the overall amount of emotion invested in the result. The political temperature in the US is red hot and that's never a good thing for social cohesion and economic growth.
Bloomberg reports today that Americans are frantically buying military gear before the election.
How does this end?
I don't see it going away and while I'm hopeful that it improves in the short-term, I'm not so optimistic in the longer term.
So what's the trade? It's not exactly clear but history shows that almost every government struggling with instability does the same thing: Spend money.
The case for gold is overwhelming. We're still in a seasonally weak spot but if there's some weakness in November, it will be time to buy. If not, buy in December at any price.
Something that would add to my conviction is if the senate is intransigent during the lame duck period and fails to pass stimulus. It will be one more sign that politics in the US is irreparable.
I mean, does this look like a top to anyone? It looks ready to explode.
