From UBS, they've been tipping an October rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia and say yesterday's release of the minutes support this view.
- minutes took a much more material step in the dovish direction
- we think makes October 'live' for a 25bps rate cut, as we have long been expecting
More:
- still expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bps in October and again in February and then May
- October cut remains 'conditional' on other global central banks easing (Fed & BoJ this week), and a soft enough labour market report Thursday.
- Governor Lowe's speech next Tuesday also remains key.
- Nonetheless, even if the RBA does hold in October, then a 25bp cut in November is still very likely.