UK inflation data due Wednesday - September CPI preview

Some previews of the data to come from the UK on 17 October 2018

Via HSBC:

• The August inflation data surprised to the upside - the annual rates of CPI, core CPI and RPI inflation all came in 0.3pp higher than consensus expectations. We think some August price rises resulted from strong demand over the hot summer so could prove temporary.
• We maintain our view that, over the medium term, as inflationary energy and FX effects fade, headline inflation will follow a downward trajectory.
• Indeed, we expect inflation to ease back in September, with the headline and core CPI rates dropping 0.2pp, to 2.5% and 1.9% y-o-y, respectively. We expect the RPI rate to fall by less (0.1pp, to 3.4% y-o-y) as we anticipate a little more pass-through of the August Bank Rate rise onto mortgage interest payments.

Via Barclays:

• We forecast CPI inflation to ease to 2.5% in September from 2.7% previously and core CPI inflation to ease by 0.1pp to 2.0%

Morgan Stanley:

• We see a fall by a tenth in both headline and core, to 2.6%Y and 2%Y, respectively. We see RPI unchanged at 3.5%Y.