US advance retail sales for October 2019
- Retail sales advance +0.3% versus 0.2% estimate. Last month -0.3% unchanged
- Ex auto +0.2% versus 0.4% estimate. Last month remained unchanged at -0.1%
- Ex auto and gas +0.1% versus +0.3% estimate. Last month revised to -0.1% from 0.0%
- Conrol group 0.3% versus 0.3% estimate. Last month revised to -0.1% from 0.0%. This measure excludes food services, car dealers, building materials, and gasoline stations and is thought to be a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand
Overall the numbers suggest the consumers remain solid, though at a slower pace and earlier this year. A total of 7 of the 13 major categories did show declines however. With sales at furniture and home furnishings falling by -0.9%. Foodservice and drinking places fell by -0.3%. Those were the steepest declines of this year.
On the positive side 9 store retailers which include online shopping rose by 0.9% and are up 14.3% from a year earlier.
Auto dealers advanced 0.5% after a -1.3% decline last month.
The confidence in the consumer comes from jobs market and solid wage gains. As Fed officials have said recently consumers have driven the economy forward as businesses are cautious to spend with uncertainty from trade weighing on their decisions
