Highlights of the August 2018 US non-farm payrolls report

  • Prior was 157K (revised to K)
  • Hourly wages 0.4% vs 0.2% exp.. YoY 2.9% vs. 2.7% exp. Best YoY vs 2009.
  • Private payrolls 204K vs +194K expected
  • 3 month average NFP 185K
  • Prior private payrolls 170K (revised to 153K)
  • Manufacturing -3K vs +23K exp
  • Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.8% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.9%
  • participation rate 62.7 versus 62.9 last
  • two-month payroll revision -50K
  • Hours of work. 34.5 vs 34.5 last
  • goods producing jobs +26K
  • construction, +23K
  • retail, -6K
  • financial, +11K K
  • trade, transportation, plus 37K
  • business services, plus 53K
  • leisure, +17 K
  • education and health services, +53K
  • government, minus 3K

Overall, still a decent number although something for everyone:

  • Manufacturing was lower at -3K. Is it trade? Still early.
  • Construction +23K
  • Earnings are well above expectations. That is driving the initial run higher in the USD.
  • The jobs gain was above, but revisions take some of the shine away. Still at this point of the recovery, job gains are still robust
  • Unemployment rate moves higher
  • Business services up 53k and Health up the same 53K
  • Stocks are lower.
  • Yields are higher with the 10 year up 3.3 bps
  • September rate hike 95%. December is up to 68% now.