Highlights of the August 2018 US non-farm payrolls report
- Prior was 157K (revised to K)
- Hourly wages 0.4% vs 0.2% exp.. YoY 2.9% vs. 2.7% exp. Best YoY vs 2009.
- Private payrolls 204K vs +194K expected
- 3 month average NFP 185K
- Prior private payrolls 170K (revised to 153K)
- Manufacturing -3K vs +23K exp
- Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.8% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.9%
- participation rate 62.7 versus 62.9 last
- two-month payroll revision -50K
- Hours of work. 34.5 vs 34.5 last
- goods producing jobs +26K
- construction, +23K
- retail, -6K
- financial, +11K K
- trade, transportation, plus 37K
- business services, plus 53K
- leisure, +17 K
- education and health services, +53K
- government, minus 3K
Overall, still a decent number although something for everyone:
- Manufacturing was lower at -3K. Is it trade? Still early.
- Construction +23K
- Earnings are well above expectations. That is driving the initial run higher in the USD.
- The jobs gain was above, but revisions take some of the shine away. Still at this point of the recovery, job gains are still robust
- Unemployment rate moves higher
- Business services up 53k and Health up the same 53K
- Stocks are lower.
- Yields are higher with the 10 year up 3.3 bps
- September rate hike 95%. December is up to 68% now.