January 2019 US consumer price index

  • Prior was +1.9% y/y (lowest since July 2017)
  • Ex food and energy 2.2% vs +2.1% exp
  • Prior food and energy 2.2%
  • CPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.1% exp
  • Prior CPI m/m 0.0%
  • CPI ex food and energy m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% exp


  • Average weekly earnings +1.9% y/y vs +1.4% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings +1.7% m/m vs +1.3% prior

Earnings have been tracking higher for a few months now. That said, +1.7% y/y is still a very modest rise in wages so there is no reason for the Fed to put hikes back on the table.

avg hourly earnings US y-y

As for the main headlines, CPI tracked a bit higher but the m/m numbers show no growth in prices, which is no surprise given the drop in energy prices. Still, the US dollar has ticked higher with the numbers slightly on the hot side.