Consumer confidence data from The Conference Board
- Prior was 134.1 (revised to 131.3)
- Present situation 162.6 vs 175.2 prior (revised to 107..7)
- Expectations 94.1 vs 106.6 prior (revised to 105.0)
- 1-year inflation expectations 5.1% vs 4.6% prior
- Jobs hard-to-get 16.4 vs 11.8 prior
This is a big miss on consumer confidence and will keep the pressure on the dollar. Jeff Gundlach has been highlighting the growing spread between the present situation and expectations in this survey and it's just blown out even further. He argues that it's a great recession indicator and says he's betting on USD weakness and gold strength.
"The decrease in the Present Situation Index was driven by a less favorable assessment of business and labor market conditions. Consumers' expectations regarding the short-term outlook also retreated. The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers' confidence. Although the Index remains at a high level, continued uncertainty could result in further volatility in the Index and, at some point, could even begin to diminish consumers' confidence in the expansion," aid Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
