US advance retail sales report for November 2017

  • Prior was +0.2%
  • Ex autos +1.0% vs +0.6% exp
  • Prior ex autos +0.1% (revised to +0.4%)
  • Retail sales ex autos and gas +0.8% vs +0.4% prior
  • Retail sales control group +0.8% vs +0.3% expected
  • Prior control group +0.3% (revised to +0.4%)

That's a very strong report. My guess here is that more Christmas spending is being pulled forward to November because of all the Black Friday madness. Evidence of that is that online sales were up 2.5% m/m. The market hasn't reacted much.

Still, these are super-strong numbers and if December is strong too, you can bet the Fed will shift to something more hawkish.