Tough one to handicap
Jeff Stein from the Washington Post reports that tax hikes being considered for the next bill (not final) include: -
- Corporate rate to 28% from 21%
- Global min tax to 21%
- Top income rate to 39.6% from 37%
- End fossil fuel subsidies
- Tax investment gains greater than $1M as wage income
- Tax assets passed on at death
Obviously this is a starting point so it will be watered down. Even the story says officials in the administration are 'exploring' those proposals.
The question is: How big of a probability do you put on any of that coming to pass? I would put it at 70% that something is coming but it's much more likely to be a 2 pp rise in corporate taxes than a 7 pp increase.
In particular, capital gains could spark some selling in equities later in the year, something I wrote about here.