New forecasts from the White House
- Sees US real GDP growth at 3.0% in 2018 vs 2.4% prior
- Sees 3.2% in 2019 vs 2.7% prior
- 3.1% in 2020 vs 2.9% prior
Inflation
- CPI 2.1% in 2018 vs 2.3% prior
- 2.0% in 2019 vs 2.3% prior
- 2.2% in 2020 vs 2.3% prior
Jobs
- Sees unemployment at 3.9% in 2018 vs 4.4% prior
- 3.7% in 2019 vs 4.6% prior
- 3.8% in 2020 vs 4.7% prior
Bonds
- Sees 10-year Treasury note averaging 2.6% in 2018 vs 3.3% prior
Deficits
- Sees FY 2018 deficit at $873B vs $440B prior
- FY 2019 deficit at $984B
The forecasts this year are optimistic but not bad. It's next year and the year beyond where it gets a bit ridiculous to be lowering unemployment forecasts and inflation forecasts. But it's not like markets care about these forecasts anyway.
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