I don't like to kick someone while they're down but if you poke your nose above the parapet you deserve to get shot at
We all remember this;
EUR/USD - Goldman Sachs says its about to fall 300 points due to ECB
And there was more here
More on that Goldman Sachs call for a 300 point fall in EUR/USD
Well today we get to hear why it all went so horribly wrong
Straight from the horses mouth and they even try to lay some blame at the feet of the ECB;
"1. We badly misread this meeting. Given the mixed messages from the ECB over QE, starting with the Bund selloff in May, we had thought there were bigger stakes at play than the usual considerations around growth and inflation. Indeed, we expected President Draghi to deliver a forceful message, in part to fix some of the damage wrought over the summer. But today badly wrong footed us and, in our view, further damaged the credibility of ECB QE. As Exhibit 1 shows, the smaller than priced deposit cut was relatively minor in the scheme of things, moving EUR/$ higher by about one big figure (from1.0550 to 1.0650), in line with our view that a 10 bps surprise maps into two big figures.
The bigger disappointment came in the press conference, when a smaller than expected extension of QE, upward revisions to growth, and a standoffish message on further deposit cuts took EUR/$ near 1.09. Our impression from the press conference was that this message was deliberate, so that the Governing Council seems far less willing to ease aggressively than we had expected. At current levels, meaning around 1.09, EUR/$ prices only the 10 bps deposit cut, given that a good part of the decline from 1.13 prior to the Oct. 22 meeting was driven by the hawkish FOMC (Oct. 28) and strong payrolls (Nov. 6). That might be a reason to remain optimistic about further declines in EUR/$, especially with Fed liftoff around the corner. But the stakes for EUR/$ and the ECB are higher
2. The big question today raises is whether the ECB is serious about QE. That question also arose over the summer, when the volatility in Bund yields raised questions over whether the ECB is willing to stabilize yields in Europe's safe haven asset to encourage portfolio shifts into risk assets. Today's selloff in Bund yields (Exhibit 2) and the bounce in EUR/$ rivals those seen in April and May and again puts the question of ECB commitment to QE firmly on the table.
From an FX perspective, this matters a great deal, as today's price action shows. The Euro rallied, driven by declining inflation break evens and rising nominal yields, i.e., rising real yields. This price action has all the hallmarks of the Yen under Governor Shirakawa, as opposed to Governor Kuroda, raising for us the unpleasant possibility that the idiosyncratic Euro weaker story has been compromised."
And to the last they still can't fully admit to being just plain wrong
"Even in the unlikely event that today's disappointment was a mistake, we think it has cost enough credibility that the Euro down story we had envisaged is now less likely to play out. We are placing our forecasts under review."
Let's be honest, we all make mistakes and have stinkers but this one is a particularly smelly one. For any of Goldman's clients who traded on this I'm sure their admittance to 'misreading the meeting' makes up for all their losses. I think I can still hear some still spitting feathers