Earlier post on the CPI data is here:
Australian inflation data (Q4 2021) is due Tuesday - preview (and RBA implications)
Due at 0030 GMT - Australia inflation data – Q4 2021 CPI
Headline
expected 0.1.0% q/q, prior 0.8%
For the y/y,
expected 3.2%, prior 3.0%
Core inflation:
Trimmed mean
expected 0.7 % q/q, prior 0.7%
expected 2.4% y/y, prior 2.1%
Weighted median
expected 0.7% q/q, prior 0.7%
Via ASB:
- This Australian Q4 CPI release is pivotal.
- trimmed mean CPI to increase by 0.9%/qtr (2.5%/yr).
- Several private surveys support our view that the rate of price increases accelerated over Q4. Higher housing construction and petrol prices are expected to continue to contribute to the strong inflation outcome.
- Should the CPI print in line with our expectations, we think the RBA will be forced to shift their narrative around the inflation outlook. We think the Q4 print will be sufficiently strong to see the RBA ending the bond buying program at the February Board meeting and set the scene for a cash rate hike at the November meeting.
