Beige Book Powell
  • Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline.
  • Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceeding expectations in three Districts,
  • Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity
  • Districts continued to note that high interest rates were limiting auto sales and real estate deals; however, the prospect of falling interest rates was cited by numerous contacts in various sectors as a source of optimism
  • concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty
  • Seven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while the pace of job growth was described as modest to moderate in four Districts.
  • Six Districts noted that their contacts had reported slight or modest price increases, and two noted moderate increases. Five Districts also noted that overall price increases had subsided to some degree from the prior period, while three others indicated no significant shift in price pressures.
  • Firms in most Districts cited examples of steady or falling input prices, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and more discounting by auto dealers
  • Premium increases for property and casualty insurance and for health insurance continue to impact most firms
  • Highlights of the prior Beige Book

The comments from the districts overwhelmingly highlight a sluggish but still growing economy. It sounds like the kind of 2% GDP growth economy we had for the 2010s. There also weren't any signs of fresh price pressures so the question will be how much does the Fed want to ease without a truly soft economy?