Biden ice cream

Assuming he means the pace of inflation, he's not crazy to say that.

The drop in energy prices in December bakes in a deceleration next month, assuming oil doesn't rip back higher in the days ahead. There's also evidence that supply chains are starting to loosen up. Moreover, the base effects start to work against inflation in a few months.

That said, rising rents, home costs and travel costs aren't going away.

The X-factor is wages and that's a tough call.

I also think energy prices are going much higher later, but if I'm wrong about that, there's a chance this is the y/y peak.

There's plenty of hysteria out there but we've been in a long-term disinflationary environment and the factors driving globalization and automation haven't changed. Immigration will soon pick up again as well, restraining wages.

The bond market certainly isn't suggesting inflation will stay at 6.8% for long.