Oil started the week higher on the debt ceiling deal and signs of strong Asia imports but it's since turned negative. The slide in oil has spilled into Canadian dollar trading, despite thin market conditions due to the US holiday. That's led to a rise in USD/CAD to 1.3610 from 1.3590 on the day; the pair is still fractionally lower from Friday's close.
I would be careful to read too much into the oil or CAD moves given the US and UK holiday.
In terms of the Canadian economic calendar, On Tuesday, May 30, at 8:30 AM ET, the Q1 Current Account data is scheduled for release. Economists predict a deficit of CAD -13.176B, wider than the prior quarter's deficit of CAD -10.640B. A larger-than-anticipated deficit may exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar but it's not typically a market mover.
The following day, Wednesday, May 31, at 8:30 AM ET, we get Q1 GDP. The forecast for the annualized GDP growth rate in Q1 is 2.4%, compared to 0.0% in the previous quarter. An unexpectedly high growth rate might support the Canadian dollar and put the BOC back in play but note that much of the growth was front-loaded in Q1 so the m/m data at the consensus of -0.1% will convince Macklem that slower growth is coming.
The light Canadian weekly calendar wraps on on Thursday, June 1, at 9:30 AM ET with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May. The forecasted figure stands at 49.4, marginally lower than the prior value of 50.2. This index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector and is slowly growing in stature but not a big market mover.
