The timing of the release of this Chinese data is not certain, but today is likely.
- New yuan loans, expected is CNY 1515bn, prior was CNY 3130bn
- Total social financing, prior was CNY 4650bn
- Money supply M2, prior +9.7%
Via ING, why new loans are expected to have plummeted on the month:
- We expect April loan data to be released today, and we look for it to come in around half the volume of March. This fall is mainly due to the Covid lockdown in Shanghai, which has slowed loan processing due to delayed logistics and also weakened loan demand. This weaker loan environment could remain the case for some months to come.
- Even though regular government meetings suggest reducing financing costs to boost the economy, banks are currently risk-averse, and lower interest rates may not help to create new loans. Lower interest rates could help existing borrowers, however. The regular government meeting also proposes using REITS to leveraging on existing infrastructure to get funding for new infrastructure projects. Another proposal is to subsidise new energy as well as increase the supply of coal to avoid electricity stoppages. The message is clear - economic growth is the top priority, though this goal has to be pursued without any relaxation on Covid measures for now.
