Seeking Alpha (gated) carries comments from Citi analysts. In brief:
Global growth expected to slow down this year, citing:
- “lingering challenges, such as the lagged effects of high rates, and fading momentum in services spending.”
- “Downside risks persist including elevated geopolitical stress and fears over U.S. commercial real estate,”
- “While there are also upside risks such as the potential for a faster than expected recovery in global manufacturing, we continue to see more reasons for caution than optimism.”
On inflation:
- “Even with ongoing conflict in the Red Sea, our supply chain pressure index has been strikingly stable of late and points to goods inflation staying near pre-pandemic levels.”
- However, global services inflation stays high at twice its historical pace
- the labor markets remain tight with wages still well above their 2019 levels
