Deutsche Bank on US equites:

  • We are in rarefied air in terms of the relentless risk rally since the end of October.
  • the S&P 500 has now been up for 15 out of the last 17 weeks ... the first time since 1989 that’s happened, and before that you’d need to go back to 1972 for such a run
  • If we get yet another advance this week, it would be 16 out of 18 for the first time since 1971, the joint record in an 18-week run.

One for the record books. So, pull back time? Perhaps not. DB go on:

  • Interestingly, looking at all such 15/17 week runs, the median price performance in the next 13 and 26 weeks is +2.0% and +5.5%, respectively, which are both high relative to an annual price move of around 6% over the last 100 years. So there is no specific evidence, from history, of mean reversion once you see one of these runs.

In a separate note from DB, analysts say that inflows to equities over the past 5 weeks have been the strongest in 2 years, around USD75bn, and:

  • inflows to bond funds ($15.2bn) this week also accelerated to the highest in 13 months and were broad-based
deutsche bank