El-Erian writing for Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated), in brief:
- The U.S. is the sole major engine of global growth in an increasingly less-stable world
- Sticky inflation combined with slower growth will put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.
- I put the chance of a U.S. soft landing at around 50%; the probability of a (misleadingly named) "no landing" - higher growth with no additional inflationary pressures and genuine financial stability - at around 15%; and the chance of recession and new threats of financial instability at 35%.
