After the OPEC+ surprise at the end of last month, oil prices had been poised to chase a break higher in early April before the drop last week sort of took the wind out of buyers' sails. The rejection came right at the 200-day moving average (blue line), with buyers initially hoping for a firm break above $83:
In turn, that has seen price eat back into the gap higher seen on 3 April with price action knocking on the door of a drop back below the 100-day moving average (red line) at $76.80. That key technical level had previously helped to limit gains since November last year, and is now acting as a critical support layer instead.
If we do see that level break, that will allow sellers to chase to fill the gap with that important technical juncture seen at $75.65.
That will be a big win for sellers to try and chase a move back towards $70 again, especially now that broader markets are feeling jittery about global growth prospects.
