Preview: US CPI to be released tomorrow. What to expect?

The CPI release for tomorrow is expected to show elevated consumer prices, consistent with levels seen in March. Here are the forecasts:

• CPI (YoY): +5.0% expected, matching March's +5.0%
• CPI (MoM): +0.4% expected, up from March's 0.1%
• Core CPI (YoY): +5.5% expected, slightly lower than March's +5.6%
• Core CPI Core CPI Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation that excludes certain volatile items, and that's almost always food and energy prices. The idea behind using core CPI is that these items can have large fluctuations in prices due to factors such as weather, natural disasters and geopolitical tensions, which do not necessarily reflect underlying inflationary trends. By excluding these items, the core CPI provides a more stable and reliable measure of underlying inflation.The specific item Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation that excludes certain volatile items, and that's almost always food and energy prices. The idea behind using core CPI is that these items can have large fluctuations in prices due to factors such as weather, natural disasters and geopolitical tensions, which do not necessarily reflect underlying inflationary trends. By excluding these items, the core CPI provides a more stable and reliable measure of underlying inflation.The specific item Read this Term (MoM): +0.4% expected, same as March's +0.4%

One year ago, the CPI rose by 0.4% in April. That gain will be replaced by the 0.4% this year. In April of last year, the core CPI increased by 0.5% (to be replaced by 0.4% if it comes in as expected).

Fed comments keep on going back to the CPI ex shelter. That has continued to move higher despite calls that it would start to move lower. Last month, the shelter component rose 0.6%. (see prior report HERE)

These numbers indicate that inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Fed has been raising interest rates to address inflation, but there are concerns about pushing the economy into a recession if rates are raised too quickly.

Currently, markets are pricing in an 83% chance that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in June.