Putin indicated that obligations to 'friendly' countries would be maintained so this likely limits the damage elsewhere, particularly in some major farming nations.

This is the list of 'unfriendly countries':

  • Canada
  • the United States
  • member states of the European Union
  • the United Kingdom, including Jersey, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar
  • Ukraine
  • Montenegro
  • Switzerland
  • Albania
  • Andorra
  • Iceland
  • Liechtenstein
  • Monaco
  • Norway
  • San Marino
  • North Macedonia
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Australia
  • Micronesia
  • New Zealand
  • Singapore
  • Taiwan

Note that Brazil isn't on the list and that's a huge agricultural exporter.

What we will need confirmation on is the policy in Belarus. It produces nearly half of the world's potash supply.

Globally, fertilizer prices are already extremely high because of the spike in natural gas prices. There is a spiraling risk of instability in the developing world due to food prices. You can see now why India has taken a very balanced line on Russia. They can't afford to go without fertilizer or source it elsewhere so close to planting season.