An 11% rally in Tesla led a hot start for US stocks. The S&P 500 rose to as high as 4068 but it's since pared back to 4056, a 0.6% gain. The Nasdaq also pared its gain to 1.0%.

SPX daily

You can see the uncertainty in the market as we go back and forth between worries about a hard landing or persistently high inflation/interest rates. Right in the middle is the scenario that's good for stocks but the Fed will really need to thread the needle.

With jobless claims today at the lowest since April, you have to worry about persistent wage inflation but how much weight do you put on that after a decade of low inflation? The base case still has to be that we go back to a low inflation, modest growth world until proven wrong.