- Prior was +263K
- Unemployment rate 3.5% vs 3.7% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 62.3% vs 62.1% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
- U6 underemployment rate 6.5% vs 6.7% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% expected (prior +0.6%, revised to +0.4%)
- Average hourly earnings +4.6% y/y vs +5.0% expected (prior +5.1%, revised to +4.8%)
- Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 expected
- Change in private payrolls 220K vs +180K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +10K vs +10K expected
- Household survey +717K vs -186K prior
- Birth-death adjustment -56K
- Full report
USD/JPY was trading at 134.42 just ahead of the data but down to 134.15 afterwards.
The market is focused on the wage data rather than the headline but I'm not sure that's the right take. The terminal Fed top is down to 5.03% from 5.05% before the release and the odds of just 25 bps on Feb 1 are up to 66.7% from 60% pre-release.
I was watching the household survey number closely in this one because it's been badly lagging the establishment number for months. But instead of the establishment number going lower, the household number went much higher. I just can't see the US consumer slowing down this year with employment so strong and consumer still sitting on $0.9 trillion in excess savings.