Calculated Risk is out with a look at some high-frequency data and that will have to do with the economic calendar empty today.
The data on flights, the box office, hotels and gasoline demand are an interesting view on the US consumer. They paint a picture of Americans essentially 'back to normal' for flights and hotels. Despite the pain in airports earlier in the summer, numbers were still well-below 2019 levels -- the issues were more a matter of staffing and over-booking. But in the lsat few weeks, there are tentative signs of a return to normal.
Hotels paint a similar picture with Calculated Risk noting that the week of Sept 3 was the first time 2019 levels were matched. I'll be watching these metrics to see if there was a bit of end-of-summer FOMO or demand is truly back. Either way, there's no sign of weakening or a recessionary mindset creeping in.
As for the box office, that's a secular story on the shift to TV. Top Gun brought movies back to life but the momentum has fizzled badly. There's a big slate scheduled for the final few months of the year and here's to hoping the silver screen isn't dead. Either way though, it doesn't say much about the health of the consumer.
Gasoline data is skewed by customs counting problems and doesn't reflect reality.
